Unusual suspects: Five starting pitchers to back
By CHRIS BERNUCCA | May 14, 2009 | 1 comment
Who is the best pitcher in baseball?
Ask a fan and you'll probably get an argument between Kansas City's Zack Greinke and Toronto's Roy Halladay. Greinke
is 6-1 and has allowed three earned runs all season. Halladay leads the major leagues with seven wins and sports a 2.95 ERA.
But ask the bettor and you will get a different answer. While Greinke and Halladay both have produced sparkling returns
on investment, they have been favorites in virtually all of their starts this season, usually at prohibitive prices.
In the category of starter money, both Greinke and Halladay are being outdone by Matt Palmer.
Who?
Palmer is a 30-year-old right-hander who has been a godsend for the Angels – and for wise bettors. With rotation
mainstays Ervin Santana and John Lackey sidelined due to early season injuries, Palmer - who did not make his major-league
debut until last season - has won all four of his starts while posting a 3.38 ERA.
In an 11-day span, Palmer outpitched CC Sabathia at Yankee Stadium and went the distance against the Red Sox, when he
was working as a favorite for the first time.
Bettors may have to get used to laying the wood with Palmer, but here are four other pitchers whose relative anonymity
and early season success have made them attractive plays:
Eric Stults, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stults made a name for himself late last month when Dodgers manager Joe Torre batted him eighth and outfielder Juan Pierre
ninth. But his pitching has been much better than his hitting.
The southpaw has won four of his six starts this season, matching his win total from 2006-08. He has allowed more than
three earned runs just once and the Dodgers are 5-1 in his starts, placing him seventh among all major-leaguers in starter
money.
Coming off a four-hitter vs. San Francisco, Stults takes the mound Friday at Florida. All four of his wins have come
at home, so be cautious.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics
A 21-year-old rookie, Cahill has been nothing short of outstanding this season, allowing more than two earned runs in
just one of his seven starts.
That outing came on April 24, and the A's pulled the righty from the rotation to work on his mechanics.
Since his return, Oakland has won all three of his starts, and Cahill has allowed just four earned runs in 19 innings.
Cahill has no-decisions in all three of his road starts, although Oakland is 2-1 in those games. He has been the favorite
in his last two outings, but the price remains attractive for now.
Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays
Cecil has the pedigree and all the tools to be a top-flight pitcher. The 22-year-old left-hander was a second round pick
in the 2007 draft and last year climbed from Class A to Class AAA.
He began this season in the minors and surprisingly did not pitch well. But with Toronto's rotation ravaged by injuries,
he was called up and has been strong in two starts, allowing one run over 14 innings with Jays backers cashing both times.
It is possible that some of Cecil's success could be the unfamiliarity that the American League has with him. The more
he pitches, the more of a "book" there will be on him. But right now, he is a mystery to most foes and worth a look.
Kevin Millwood, Texas Rangers
Millwood has not been sharp the last couple of years, going 19-24 with an ERA above 5.00 in 2007-2008. But this season
has been a different story.
The veteran right-hander has pitched at least seven innings in all seven starts and has allowed three earned runs or
less in five of them. He has pitched far better than his record (3-3, 2.92 ERA) has indicated. Under bettors are happy to
see this former Brave take the bump.
The under is 4-1-2 his seven 2009 starts and 7-1-2 in his last 10 starts dating back to last season.
Peter Gammons Pitcher Notes
Tommy Hanson, Braves right-handed pitcher. It won't be long until something happens and he's in Atlanta. But after a
year in which opponents batted .175 against him and he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings, he dominated the Arizona
Fall League, was superb in the spring and, as one GM says, "with his four-pitch mix, [he'll] be in that rotation soon, and
for a long time."
Daniel Bard, Red Sox right-handed pitcher. Two years ago, Bard went through a nightmare by issuing 78 walks in 76 innings
pitched. This spring, the refrain through the southwest portion of Florida was "the easiest 100 [mph] I've ever seen." His
presence changed, he got up on top, his breaking ball tightened and that 97-102 comes out of his hand so easily that it looks
as if he's playing catch with his mother. Just a matter of time before he'll be pitching in Boston.
Junichi Tazawa, Red Sox right-handed pitcher. This was the biggest surprise of the spring. Signed out of an industrial
league in Japan, the 22-year-old shocked people with his command (he threw one ball per inning in his last two minor league
starts). "He'd have been in the top six to 10 in this June's draft," says one scout, "and his feel might have moved him him
into the top five."
Jason Motte, Cardinals right-handed pitcher. His power arm helped him jump into the St. Louis bullpen, likely in front
of Ryan Franklin, for now. If Chris Perez gets healthy, he'll be there. And don't be surprised if the remarkably talented
Colby Rasmus doesn't win the Cardinals' center field job.
Others receiving at least two notices:
right-handed pitcher Wade Davis, Rays; right-handed pitcher Jordan Walden, Angels;
right-handed pitcher
Jarrod Parker, Diamondbacks;
right-handed pitcher Neftali Feliz and left-handed pitcher Derek Holland, Rangers;
left-handed
pitcher Brett Cecil, Blue Jays;
Which players have you watched who convinced you they are on the brink of a breakout season?
Chris Volstad, RHP, Marlins
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers. If he doesn't get rushed too quickly.
Andrew
Miller, LHP, Marlins (His past two starts have highlighted the work on his delivery.)
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets
Francisco
Liriano, LHP, Twins
Kyle Davies, RHP, Royals (His stuff is like it was last September, and back where it was during
his rise with the Braves.)
Who had the best arm you saw this spring?
This wasn't close. Boston's Daniel Bard got three times as many votes as anyone else. Actually, tied for second were
a catcher (Carlos Santana) and an outfielder (Rick Ankiel), although the latter doesn't qualify as a kid.
1. Daniel Bard, RHP, Red Sox
2. Brandon Morrow, RHP, Mariners
3. Derek Holland, LHP, Rangers
4. Josh Lindblom,
RHP, Dodgers
5. Jordan Walden, RHP, Angels
